Market environment for freight forwarders since 2000, the current 2025 conditions, and strategic levers for mid-sized logistics providers
Since 2000, the market environment for freight forwarding companies in Germany has changed significantly. The market has grown, but the rules of the game have become more demanding. Revenue in the German freight and logistics market amounted to around EUR 187 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to approximately EUR 226 billion by 2029. At the same time, freight transport performance has increased overall, albeit with pronounced downturns in 2009 and 2020 and a weaker sideways trend since 2022. This creates a clear tension for freight forwarders: more volume in the system does not automatically translate into higher profitable value creation per company. Requirements for capital, IT, compliance and personnel have risen sharply, while margins remain under pressure due to intense competition and price-sensitive customers. To succeed in this environment, strong capacity utilisation is no longer sufficient. What is needed is a clear service focus, digital capabilities, robust management control, and a realistic transformation roadmap, particularly with regard to costs, regulation, labour shortages and decarbonisation.
Starting point: A larger market with tougher rules
The logistics sector is now the third-largest industry in Germany (after automotive and retail). At the same time, the environment for freight forwarding companies has changed markedly over the past 25 years. Target markets have become larger, but also more complex, more regulated and more margin-constrained. While the overall market volume continues to grow, it does not automatically become easier for individual freight forwarders to secure profitable segments. One key reason is that the development has not been linear. The downturns in 2009 and 2020, as well as the weaker sideways trend since 2022, illustrate how strongly transport activity reacts to the business cycle, supply-chain shifts and external shocks. In such an environment, predictability becomes a scarce resource. This increases pressure on cost control, processes, liquidity and professional management, particularly for mid-sized companies.
Market development since 2000: Five phases that shaped the industry
1) Liberalisation and growth (2000–2008)
The early 2000s were shaped by globalisation and EU enlargement (2004/2007). Transport volumes increased, particularly in road freight. At the same time, competitive pressure intensified: the market entry of low-cost Eastern European carriers increased pricing pressure, especially in international and cabotage transport. The introduction of the German HGV toll in 2005 added a structural cost factor, later amplified by extensions to additional roads and vehicle classes. Many traditional freight forwarders responded by broadening their service offering, moving from pure transport organisation to integrated logistics services such as contract logistics, warehousing and value-added services. Networks and international partnerships gained importance, while cost competitiveness became increasingly critical.
2) Financial crisis, consolidation and efficiency pressure (2009–2013)
The financial crisis from 2009 caused a pronounced decline in transport volumes. The recovery from 2010 was uneven. Banking regulation and Basel III made financing more difficult for mid-sized freight forwarders, for example for truck fleets or logistics real estate. As a result, consolidation accelerated. Acquisitions, mergers and network memberships increased significantly. At the same time, customer and partner expectations regarding transparency and controllability shifted. Investments in IT, including telematics, tracking systems and early digital freight exchanges, increasingly became prerequisites for sustained competitiveness. The competitive environment professionalised noticeably; companies that did not become more efficient and more digital lost competitiveness.
3) E-commerce boom and labour shortages (2014–2019)
From 2014 to 2019, growth was driven by e-commerce and B2C. Parcel and CEP providers expanded rapidly, while general cargo and contract logistics players benefited through fulfilment, warehousing and returns management. Differentiation within the forwarding sector continued at pace. Contract logistics, 3PL/4PL and supply chain management gained significant relevance. In parallel, structural bottlenecks intensified. The driver shortage increased, warehouse and logistics space became scarcer, and rents rose sharply in many regions. Additional regulatory requirements increased indirect costs, for example minimum wage rules, social regulations, stricter enforcement of driving and rest times, as well as cabotage and posting-of-workers rules. The result was a market with higher demand, but also increasingly intense competition for resources and margin.
4) COVID shock, overheating and the energy crisis (2020–2022)
From March 2020, COVID caused short-term declines, particularly in industry-driven sectors (including automotive), while online retail demand rose strongly at the same time. Transport volumes became unpredictably more volatile. Operational risks increased, for example due to border regimes, hygiene requirements and staff shortages. In 2021/22, freight markets overheated, with high spot rates and tight capacity. Freight forwarders with strong purchasing power on the carrier side were able to achieve selectively above-average margins. From 2022 onwards, the energy crisis and inflation reshaped conditions again. Rising diesel prices, cost pressure and declining predictability became part of day-to-day operations. Short-term market opportunities existed, but market risks increased, and longer-term market and customer reliability weakened further.
5) Cooling, a wave of costs and transformation pressure (2023–2025)
Since 2023/24, the market outlook has been characterised by weakening momentum. Germany’s GDP has increasingly stagnated or slightly declined, and manufacturing output remains weak. Forecasts (BALM/BMDV) point to only moderate growth in freight transport towards 2025. There is no boom, at best a subdued upswing. At the same time, increases and extensions of tolls (including the CO₂ component) are placing significant pressure on road freight. The sector is under severe cost pressure. Conditions on the real estate side remain challenging as well: logistics space take-up in 2024 is below the long-term average, investors are more cautious, and prime rents are stable at a high level in many regions.
In addition, major political impulses around sustainability (Fit for 55, the EU Mobility Package, climate targets) are driving decarbonisation, with topics such as battery-electric trucks, alternative drivetrains and intermodality. Funding programmes support rail and infrastructure, combined transport and alternative drivetrains. In parallel, digitalisation is becoming the standard: platforms, freight exchanges, transport management systems, real-time tracking and AI-based dispatching are increasingly expected capabilities. Overall, this results in an environment of weaker demand, very high costs and massive transformation pressure (digitalisation, decarbonisation, labour shortages), in which smaller freight forwarders in particular come under greater pressure, while large integrated logistics players leverage scale advantages.
Structural changes: Concentration alongside fragmentation
Key structural changes relate primarily to the corporate landscape. Large logistics groups and networks are gaining market share, while smaller trucking companies and carriers are struggling with persistently rising cost pressure and succession challenges. Despite increasing concentration, the market remains fragmented, with many small and medium-sized players, especially in domestic and regional transport.
Business models have also broadened. They range from traditional forwarding (arranging transport) to contract logistics (warehousing and value-added services), 3PL/4PL, network management and industry-specific solutions (e.g., automotive, pharma, e-commerce, FMCG). Many companies operate “asset-light” via subcontractors; others deliberately invest in their own fleets to secure capacity and quality. From a strategic perspective, there is no single right approach, but clear success logics are visible in the market.
Pricing and margin reality: Why pressure remains structural
The most competitively relevant long-term trends affecting pricing and margins are margin pressure, high competitive intensity and increasingly price-sensitive customers. Short-term spikes in 2021/22 temporarily lifted margins, but these effects were offset again this year by phases of weaker demand and rising costs.
What is different today compared to 2000 and why it raises the bar for management
Compared with 2000, the market environment today is, above all, more regulated and more expensive (e.g., tolls including CO₂, diesel, wages, documentation requirements, compliance), more digital and more transparent (real-time information, interfaces, platform integration, digital billing), more labour-intensive and more difficult to manage in terms of personnel (driver shortages as well as shortages of qualified dispatchers and IT specialists), and more strongly driven by climate policy (pressure to reduce emissions, investments in alternative drivetrains, intermodal solutions, CO₂ reporting). At the same time, the business has become more capital-intensive and more professionalised. Vehicles, facilities, IT and transformation requirements demand substantial investment capacity, clear management control and often cooperation or operational alliances. These factors act in parallel and raise requirements with regard to access to capital, IT, compliance and personnel.
Strategic opportunity for the mid-market: Six levers that really matter
Despite high costs, volatile demand, intense competition, digitalisation gaps and growing regulatory pressure, the outlook is by no means bleak. What matters is which levers are used consistently:
Set clear priorities: Not size, but specialisation creates differentiation. Companies that concentrate their strengths on selected lanes, industries or services achieve higher margins and more stable customer relationships.
Treat digitalisation as a competitive factor: Digital transparency, connected systems and automated processes are key prerequisites for efficiency and customer access. Investment delivers decisive advantages in speed of execution, scalability and data capabilities.
Actively manage sustainability and compliance: CO₂ tolls, ESG requirements and funding landscapes are fundamentally reshaping the industry. Companies that adopt low-emission transport solutions, intermodal concepts and CO₂ transparency early secure cost advantages and customer access.
Manage people as a strategic bottleneck: The shortage of skilled labour and drivers remains structural. Successful companies cultivate modern leadership, attractive working conditions and targeted qualification, while digitalising processes to reduce workload for employees.
Leverage cooperation and networks: No mid-sized freight forwarder can meet all requirements alone today. Corporate networks, shared infrastructure, international partners and digital platforms increase reach and efficiency.
Establish professional management control: Transparent KPIs, active pricing, structured transformation programmes and financial discipline determine long-term competitiveness.
Conclusion: Not the biggest players win, but the best-managed ones
The development since 2000 paints a clear picture: the market has grown, while requirements have risen significantly. Costs, regulation, digitalisation, labour shortages and decarbonisation are unfolding in parallel. Over the long term, success will therefore not be determined by utilisation alone, but by the ability to clearly position the business model, manage performance professionally and execute transformation consistently.
The key message for mid-sized freight forwarders in Germany is this: the future will not belong to the largest, but to the best-managed freight forwarding companies. Those that set clear priorities, deploy relevant technologies purposefully, retain talent and maintain financial discipline can grow profitably even in a demanding market environment and continue to play a strong role in the German forwarding sector.
